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Norges Bank expected to hold at 4.25% as inflation cools

The policy meeting focus includes guidance on August inflation, while easing wage pressure is seen as reinforcing the case for less tightening.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Norges Bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.25% at its upcoming meeting, after Norway’s low inflation readings for June and July, according to Action Forex.

The outlet expects the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain a tightening bias, with forward guidance likely to signal whether further tightening may still be needed. Attention is also on how August inflation could evolve, including the impact from kindergarten prices.

Ahead of the decision, Statistics Norway is set to release the Q3 oil investment survey and Q2 wage figures. Action Forex links the wage data to the latest inflation signal, noting there is a good chance Q2 wage growth came in below Norges Bank’s 4.5% forecast for 2026.

The broader macro calendar also includes Sweden’s final July inflation data, the UK’s June GDP estimate, and the euro area’s industrial production figures. In the US, July PPI is expected to be in focus alongside remarks from Fed officials, after recent CPI results helped reduce market pricing for a September rate hike, Action Forex said.

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