Home›Insurance›Property Insurance›Wildfire risk model using property-level data could ra…

Wildfire risk model using property-level data could raise home scores

Cotality estimates over 2.5 million properties in the 10 most exposed western states face moderate or greater wildfire risk, with model updates potentially increasing risk ratings by as much as 40 points.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Property Insurance

Reinsurance News reports that Cotality’s 2026 Wildfire Risk Report uses new property-level data to show how wildfire can spread between homes, highlighting additional steps insurers and homeowners can take to improve resilience.

The report finds that more than 2.5 million properties across the 10 most exposed states carry moderate or greater wildfire risk, with a combined reconstruction cost value near $1.4 trillion. It says California accounts for 1.28 million at-risk properties with $850 billion in RCV, while Colorado and Texas together include nearly 560,000 properties with $252 billion in RCV.

Cotality also says its modeling expands the wildfire footprint by factoring conflagration, when fuel moves from wildlands into neighborhoods and spreads home to home. According to the outlet, layering conflagration potential onto traditional wildfire scoring can increase a property’s risk rating by up to 40 points, potentially pushing hazards deeper into areas legacy maps previously labeled low risk.

The report ties mitigation performance to expected losses, stating that homes in the top 10% of its property-level mitigation score are associated with expected losses about 78% below the statewide average. In contrast, the bottom 10% runs more than 10 times the average, or about $47 in expected loss for every $1 on the best-prepared homes, and Cotality frames higher scores as an opportunity to protect properties more effectively.

More like this

Sources