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Goldman flags cooling consumer spending as tax refund boost fades

Goldman estimates real consumer spending growth may slow to 1.0% to 1.5% in the second half after second quarter gains were boosted by tax refunds.

Monday, August 17, 2026 · Written up by our desk · Sectors

Goldman Sachs economists warned that US consumer spending growth could cool as the boost from higher-than-planned tax refunds fades, even though consumer-facing company sales rose at a healthy pace in the second quarter.

In a note cited by Yahoo Finance, Goldman said second quarter sales grew 5.9% year over year among the median S&P 500 consumer discretionary company and rose 3.9% among the median consumer staples company. Same-store sales accelerated for retailers serving both lower- and higher-income consumers.

Goldman expects sluggish consumer spending growth ahead, arguing that the strength in real consumer spending during the spring reflected a temporary impact from the tax refund surge rather than a sustained improvement. The economists projected real consumer spending growth could slow to 1.0% to 1.5% in the second half as real cash flow stagnates.

The warning arrives as the broader economy showed a slowdown, with US GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. Yahoo Finance also highlighted comments from Procter and Gamble CFO Andre Schulten that higher-income consumers are still buying P&G innovations, while lower-income shoppers remain cautious.

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