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Taiwan seen sustaining double-digit GDP growth into 2026 and 2027
DBS raised its Taiwan forecasts to 11.6% GDP growth in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027, while also projecting a 12.5 basis point rate hike in 4Q to take the policy rate to 2.125%.
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying revised its Taiwan growth outlook upward, lifting 2026 GDP growth to 11.6% from 9.4% and raising the 2027 forecast to 5.6% from 4.5%, according to FXStreet.
The note says Taiwan’s 2026 growth would be the strongest in more than three decades, and only the second time since 2010 that Taiwan posts double-digit growth. It points to a continued narrowing of a K-shaped divergence, supported by domestic demand, cumulative wealth effects from the stock market, stabilization in the property market, and steady wage and employment conditions.
DBS also frames the growth path as an AI-driven transition from a supercharged pace to a steadier trajectory in 2H26 through 2027, while citing cyclical caution tied to external financing needs and electricity and regulatory constraints facing US hyperscalers.
On rates, the report maintains a forecast for a 12.5 basis point hike in 4Q, bringing Taiwan’s policy discount rate to 2.125%, and suggests an immediate hike is unlikely ahead of the November local elections. It adds that December is seen as a more appropriate timing if inflation has remained above 2% for more than six months and inflation expectations start to rise.