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Gold seen trading in a wide range as Fed pause bets grow
FXStreet and TD Securities note energy-driven inflation risk could keep gold capped within a $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce corridor into early 2027.
Gold prices are drawing support from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through the rest of the year, helped by softer US inflation and employment data, according to FXStreet.
FXStreet, citing TD Securities strategists, said speculative positioning has leaned long as short-end yields stabilize and the US dollar faces downward pressure. At the same time, some traders are hedging against scenarios where oil price volatility from Middle East tensions reignites inflation concerns and forces a reassessment of the Fed’s rate outlook.
With that tail risk in mind, FXStreet projects gold is likely to remain range-bound near term. TD Securities expects the metal to stay anchored in a $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce corridor into early 2027, with a potential upside breakout later in 2027 if inflation pressure fades.
The analysis also links any upside shift in market expectations for higher Fed funds rates to oil price spikes, which could prompt gold traders to reprice policy assumptions. FXStreet said the Fed pause narrative has been reinforced by political concerns and soft spots in the labor market, even as near-term gains remain constrained by energy risk.
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