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Polymarket CLARITY Act odds near 20% as one No position reshapes pricing
A single Polymarket account built a roughly $414,895 No position with about 64% of displayed liquidity left unspent, while a Senate cloture vote on Sept. 15 is set to be the next major catalyst.
Polymarket pricing for the CLARITY Act has hovered near 20% on the Yes side, according to CryptoSlate live market data, with the article highlighting that a large No position is likely distorting how much the displayed odds reflect broad sentiment versus thin liquidity.
CryptoSlate reports the market’s No side includes an account holding about 515,398 No shares at the time of publication, with the position valued at roughly $414,895. That No position was built by an anonymous trader who deposited about $499,999 in USDC and spent roughly $398,122 across three trades, adding the bulk of shares in the final two transactions. The account still had about $101,877 unspent, or about 64% of displayed liquidity.
The piece also notes that Polymarket shows cumulative trading volume of $7.11 million for the CLARITY Act market, but that figure may not reflect how much can trade immediately without moving the price. Because Polymarket uses a central limit order book, the midpoint probability shown on the page is based on the best bid and best ask, while large trades can work through multiple resting levels, making the effective price differ from the single number displayed.
On the political calendar, CryptoSlate points to the Senate’s schedule, which sets a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act for 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. The article frames this as the market’s first real information event since the No position was built, with new developments and potentially large orders expected to test the book, even as the bill’s overall path remains difficult regardless of the vote outcome.