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Prediction markets price 74% odds of the Fed standing pat in September

Betting markets tied to Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad show traders leaning toward no Fed policy change at the September meeting.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Prediction markets are indicating a higher likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep policy unchanged at its September meeting, with traders pricing the odds at about 74%.

According to Decrypt, the leaning toward a pause is visible across major crypto-adjacent prediction platforms, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad.

The consensus across those venues suggests traders expect the next Fed decision to involve no change rather than a move in either direction at the September meeting.

The pricing reflects how participants are positioning ahead of the Fed event, with the dominant view centered on standing pat.

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