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Solana Policy Institute CEO doubts Clarity Act progress before midterms

Prediction markets put year-end passage odds near 21% on Polymarket and 23% on Kalshi as the Senate works on the bill for more than a year.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Regulation

The Solana Policy Institute CEO said the U.S. Clarity Act framework is stuck in what he described as “August recess purgatory,” with time running out before the midterm elections. In an interview covered by The Block, Miller Whitehouse-Levine said the Senate has been working on the legislation for more than a year and that completing it in the current Congress is getting harder as the end of the session approaches.

Whitehouse-Levine also said the bill’s path has become more complex as traditional institutions have escalated their involvement. He pointed to political complications for Democrats tied to the president’s involvement, and he said banks and large lenders continue to object to provisions related to stablecoin yields.

The Block also cited prediction market activity around the measure, including Polymarket’s year-end passage odds of 21% and Kalshi’s 23%. According to The Block, Polymarket has more than $7 million in trading volume, while Kalshi’s odds were down from about 50% less than a month earlier.

Whitehouse-Levine said securities firms and derivatives companies are focused on contingencies that could affect their businesses, adding more stakeholders to the debate. He argued that each additional group can make the effort to pass the market structure bill harder to finalize.

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