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Study argues AI efficiencies in oil and gas could outweigh renewable cuts

The paper, published in npj Climate Action, says emissions reductions from AI in renewables would need to be 4.0 to 5.0 times larger than gains in fossil fuels for net savings.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Oil and gas may benefit from AI-driven productivity and efficiency gains more than the renewable sector, according to a paper published in npj Climate Action.

The study argues that while data centers and AI growth are often cited as major drivers of electricity demand, a more consequential shift could come from how AI helps energy companies operate more efficiently across fuels, including fossil systems.

The authors contend that emissions tied to productivity gains in oil and gas could exceed the emissions reductions AI could support in renewable energy, and that net emissions reductions would require renewables gains 4.0 to 5.0 times greater than fossil fuel gains.

The paper also suggests its models could indicate AI would “reinforce fossil fuel incumbency,” challenging the narrative that AI efficiencies in renewables can fully offset emissions growth tied to the broader increase in energy demand.

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