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Taiwan Semi options strategy targets a September move above $450
The proposed Sept. 18 440/450 bull call spread would require TSM to finish above the $450 strike for full profit, with a 35.2% break-even probability cited by the source.
Yahoo Finance highlights a bullish options setup on Taiwan Semiconductor, noting the stock has gained more than 40% year to date but is down roughly 11% since the end of June. The piece points to the company’s foundry exposure to advanced AI hardware as a core reason investors remain interested despite short-term volatility.
According to the article, Barchart’s Technical Opinion assigns TSM a 72% Strong Buy rating, and Wall Street analysts are said to have a mean 12-month price target of $512.69. The story frames the trade idea as aggressive, tied to expectations for a sizable near-term move.
The strategy discussed is a Sept. 18 440/450 bull call spread, which would reach maximum payout if TSM rises through the $450 strike at expiration. The source says the maximum profit is 156.4% on a net debit of $390, while also citing a 35.2% probability that the spread will break even, implying a 64.8% failure rate.
Yahoo Finance also notes skepticism around the odds because the stock last breached the $450 level in late June, and it adds that further calculations around TSM’s expected move reduce confidence in the spread’s odds of success. The article ends mid-calculation, without providing additional finalized probabilities beyond what is quoted above.