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US Leading Economic Index rises 0.2% in July
The Conference Board said the six-month growth rate turned positive at 0.2%, after a 1.3% contraction in the prior six months.
The US Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board increased 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline in June, according to Forexlive. The latest reading matched a 0.1% expectation cited in the coverage.
With July's gain, the LEI’s six-month growth rate moved into positive territory, rising 0.2% between January and July 2026, after a 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.
The Conference Board attributed most of the July improvement to broad component strength, while noting consumer expectations remained a drag. It also pointed to a stabilization in the labor market, but highlighted that higher living costs may weigh on consumer spending, especially for lower- and middle-income households.
The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, and said expansion should be supported by business investment in AI even as consumer spending faces pressure. The piece linked the outlook to recent weakness in Walmart shares, which fell 8.7% in the referenced commentary.