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Hormuz oil crisis boosts outlook for global electric vehicle adoption
Wood Mackenzie expects EVs to rise from 4% of the global passenger fleet today to 25% by 2040, with a high case reaching 50% above the base scenario.
Global electric vehicle sales are accelerating this year as disruptions to Middle East oil supplies and a second oil price shock in four years keep fuel prices under pressure, according to Wood Mackenzie, as cited by OilPrice.
The energy consultancy says the longer the Strait of Hormuz crisis roils global fuel markets, the stronger the case becomes for EV adoption, prompting it to adjust its outlook after the price spikes.
Wood Mackenzie now projects EVs could grow from 4% of the global fleet today to 25% by 2040 in its updated base case, with a high case branded "electric shock" in which adoption accelerates further.
The report also flags ongoing constraints, including the need for billions of U.S. dollars in investment for critical battery minerals supply and for charging networks, while noting that government support and faster-than-expected technology progress could lift sales even more.