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Iraq targets 8 million to 10 million bpd as it seeks higher OPEC quota
Baghdad says output could rise far above its roughly 4 million bpd pace before the Iran war, but exports remain constrained by the Strait of Hormuz, which it is trying to offset with routes via Turkey, Syria, and Jordan.
Iraq wants to more than double its oil production over the next six years, targeting output of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day, according to OilPrice. The plan would lift production from roughly 4 million bpd before the Iran war, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said Friday.
OilPrice reports Iraq sent its oil and finance ministers to Saudi Arabia the same day to argue for a higher OPEC production quota. The effort comes as OPEC+ has hired DeGolyer and MacNaughton to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of most member countries, with findings expected by the end of September.
That work is expected to feed into negotiations over production baselines for 2027, where a higher baseline generally means permission to pump more. OilPrice notes negotiations can become contentious because the ability to increase output depends on what each producer is allowed to produce under new baselines.
Even if Iraq secures a larger quota, OilPrice highlights a second challenge, getting the barrels to market. The country has been hit by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, historically its main crude export route, and while exports through Hormuz have been pushed back to around 2 million bpd this month, traffic remains below pre-war levels. Al-Zaidi said Iraq plans to expand exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port and pursue new routes through Syria’s Baniyas and Jordan.
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