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Koruna outperforms in CEE FX as policy divergence boosts CZK
Commerzbank said the euro’s move above 1.17 helped high-beta PLN and HUF, while CZK also gained on a more favorable domestic CNB stance and country-specific factors.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlighted recent developments in Central and Eastern European FX, saying the euro’s strength above 1.17 supported higher-beta currencies such as the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, even as regional monetary-policy paths diverge.
The firm pointed to expectations that the Czech National Bank is the only regional central bank likely to tighten further, while the MNB remains in an easing cycle and the NBP is moving closer to potential rate cuts. On that basis, Commerzbank saw the Czech koruna as the strongest near-term performer, citing its more supportive policy backdrop and defensive characteristics.
Commerzbank also noted that the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint appeared to have formed interim bottoms and recovered modestly, with EUR-HUF retreating from 365.0 toward 362.0. It said CNB tightening is already priced in by FRAs.
While both high-beta CEE currencies strengthened with the euro rally, Commerzbank said the lower-beta koruna also gained once the euro began to appreciate, suggesting an additional country-specific driver. The outlook came alongside mention that oil has moved back above USD 90 per barrel, though bond-market developments have weakened the dollar, according to the note.