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RBNZ hike odds rise but NZD/USD upside seen as limited
BBH said NZ retail sales volumes fell 0.5% quarter over quarter in Q2, even as core volumes rose 0.7% q/q.
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) flagged New Zealand retail data as Q2 retail sales volumes unexpectedly declined, with fuel and motor-related categories driving the drop. BBH noted total retail sales volume fell 0.5% quarter over quarter versus a 0.2% consensus gain, while core retail sales volume excluding those volatile items rose 0.7% q/q.
BBH added that markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hike to 2.75% on September 2, and implied a total of 75 basis points of tightening over the following twelve months. Based on BBH, the swaps curve points to policy tightening to 3.25% over that period.
BBH said the tightening outlook appears supported by above-target inflation and the RBNZ policy rate being near the lower end of its stated neutral range of 2.2% to 4.1%. However, the firm cautioned that NZD/USD upside is limited because the cross has already moved beyond rate differentials.
BBH framed the takeaway as resilient underlying demand, with core retail rising despite the headline contraction. The newsletter view was that, even with priced-in hikes, the currency may not have much additional room to benefit.