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German state elections could delay federal reforms, ING warns
ING says September elections will mainly affect political support and could slow or derail Germany’s reform package aimed at addressing prolonged stagnation.
ING’s Carsten Brzeski says upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin could reshape Germany’s reform outlook by changing the political “weather” in Berlin.
He points to the AfD’s strong polling, the fragile standing of Chancellor Merz’s CDU-SPD coalition, and the risk that internal party reactions to election outcomes could slow or even derail reforms meant to tackle Germany’s prolonged stagnation.
The elections are scheduled for 6 September, then 20 September for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, with about 5.4 million voters eligible across the three races, roughly 8% of Germany’s electorate.
While ING expects the direct economic impact in September to be limited, it warns the elections could change the “price” of implementing the federal reform package, through weaker support, slower execution, or a possible early end to the coalition.