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South Korean won extends rally, but KRW faces consolidation risk
USD/KRW briefly traded near 1,380 as exporter and corporate USD selling supported gains, while OCBC points to elevated oil, US yields, and Bank of Korea and Jackson Hole event risk.
OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said the South Korean won has extended its rally, with USD/KRW briefly touching 1,380 amid exporter and corporate USD selling and a softer broader US dollar.
They cautioned that near term consolidation risk is rising, citing elevated oil prices and US yields, plus event risk around the Bank of Korea monetary policy decision and the Jackson Hole meeting, where any shift in Fed expectations or the USD could change the currency’s momentum.
OCBC also highlighted a constructive domestic backdrop, including strong trade data, with exports up 56% year on year in the first 20 days of August, driven by record semiconductor shipments, and a sizable trade surplus.
On the technical side, the note said bullish momentum has cooled and RSI is near oversold levels, with support at 1,380 and 1,375, and resistance around 1,398 and 1,406.