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Dollar steadies as traders position ahead of Warsh speech
September Fed hike odds moved only about 1 percentage point, while the Australian dollar rallied on expectations for more RBA tightening this year.
Action Forex said the US dollar’s Thursday stabilization looks more tactical than structural, with gains staying limited despite ongoing positioning ahead of a major upcoming event.
The outlet pointed to a small change in Fed pricing, noting September hike odds moved from roughly 33% to 34%, which it said was not large enough to justify a meaningful shift in the dollar’s outlook.
Action Forex added that traders are also looking for how Fed Chair Bowman of Warsh speech separates monetary policy from Treasury financing concerns, framing the speech as a key credibility test for monetary insulation.
While the dollar waits for that catalyst, the outlet said the Australian dollar has led for a third straight session, driven by a rapid reversal in expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia, with banks including NAB, CBA, and ANZ forecasting another hike this year and additional firms joining the view.