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Kevin Warsh set for Jackson Hole speech as markets price Sept hike
Investors are looking for guidance after markets put roughly 34% odds on a Fed rate hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting, with Treasury planning to expand weekly debt buybacks from Sept. 9.
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, with investors focused on whether the speech provides clarity on major monetary policy issues and the outlook for interest rates. Live coverage is available through the Federal Reserve Board Calendar website.
According to LiveMint Markets, Warsh has taken a more limited approach since assuming the role in May, avoiding signals about where US rates could be headed and largely withholding an assessment of the economic outlook, including how the Fed should respond to rising inflation. Investors have also pushed for greater explanation of Warsh’s “reaction function,” the economic conditions that would lead the central bank to raise or lower interest rates.
Markets currently price about 34% odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting. Warsh has overseen only one FOMC meeting so far, when policymakers left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
The speech’s stakes have grown as bond yields have climbed since Warsh’s July press conference, LiveMint Markets reports. In parallel, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to increase the Treasury Department’s weekly debt buyback program to at least double its usual size starting September 9, a move Axios said could complicate how investors interpret the Fed chair’s policy stance.