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Preliminary annual benchmark revision in payroll data may skew counts
The benchmark revision can materially change prior job totals without reflecting conditions in the current labor market, Mortgage News Daily cautions.
Mortgage News Daily highlights that the latest nonfarm payroll release on the calendar is not the “real” NFP report market watchers typically focus on. The publication says today’s figure centers on a preliminary annual benchmark revision, with next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data described as the one investors will more directly monitor.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the benchmark revision can drive large changes in the job count for the previous year because it is a statistical adjustment. The outlet stresses that it provides little information about the current state of the labor market, even though it can be overinterpreted.
Mortgage News Daily adds that the revision is often treated as more consequential than it is, noting that market watchers and politicians sometimes “blow it way out of proportion,” despite it mainly reshaping historical totals.