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Treasury 10-year yield ends at 4.73% while 2-year is 4.34%
The 10-2 yield spread has been negative for stretches since July 5, 2022, most recently last turning negative on September 5, 2024.
Bond yields ended August 28, 2026 with the 10-year Treasury note at 4.73%, while the 2-year note finished at 4.34%, according to ETF Trends. The outlet also highlighted how an inverted yield curve occurs when longer maturity yields fall below shorter maturities, a pattern often associated with recession risk. It noted the 10-2 spread is widely viewed as a leading indicator, with recession start dates historically ranging from 18 to 92 weeks after the spread first turns negative. Most recently, ETF Trends said the 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, and that the last time the spread was negative was September 5, 2024. Using the first negative spread date as a reference point, the average lead time cited is 48 weeks, about eleven months, while the average using the last positive spread date before a recession is 18.5 weeks, about 4.25 months. For an additional view, the report referenced the 10-3 month spread, saying lead times to recession after it turns negative have ranged from 34 to 69 weeks, with both 1998 false-positive behavior and multiple pre-2009 turnarounds described.
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