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CMBS market set for nearly $140B in 2026 as SASB drives issuance
Trepp said more than $90B of CMBS volume is scheduled to close through early September, putting the market on pace to reach nearly $140B for the year.
The commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, market is on track to exceed 2026 issuance expectations, with single-asset, single-borrower deals driving a reassessment of where activity is heading, according to Trepp. Trepp said more than $90 billion of CMBS volume is scheduled to close through early September, which would put the market on pace to reach nearly $140 billion by year end. Trepp had initially predicted $130 billion of activity in 2026. Commercial Observer reported that Trepp’s analysis points to a rebound over the past two years, with $126.6 billion of CMBS debt issued in 2025, up from $108 billion in 2024. For 2026, Trepp highlighted that the deal mix is different than it was before the pandemic. In remarks to Commercial Observer on Aug. 20, Trepp researchers said the office-related stress has a long tail and is still expected to flow through as leases roll and companies revisit space needs. They also said SASB has become the dominant origination channel, citing that of roughly $92.6 billion in announced CMBS private label issuance, 75 percent, or about $69 billion, has been in single-asset, single-borrower deals.