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ING sees Hungary growth improving but constrained by investment limits
ING forecasts Hungarian GDP growth of 1.7% in 2026, with consumption the main driver but net exports and a nuclear energy crisis weighing on the trade balance later in the year.
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya say Hungary is heading for gradual, but constrained, growth after GDP rose 0.5% quarter over quarter and 1.7% year over year in the second quarter, according to FXStreet.
The economists project 1.7% growth for 2026, led mainly by consumption, supported by rising real disposable income and stronger consumer confidence. They also point to weakness in investment, net exports, and longer running structural limits tied to demographics and capital stock as key headwinds.
While they note the decline in investment is partly linked to a review and suspension of projects started by the previous government and may be temporary, they expect investment activity to pick up toward year end as EU funds are drawn down. Export growth, they add, may be constrained by geopolitical uncertainty, rising production costs, and potential supply disruptions.
Looking ahead, ING expects growth to reach around 3.0% in 2027 to 2028 if domestic demand keeps strengthening and external demand eventually improves, but warns that the nearly four year stagnation in capital stock and the deteriorating demographic situation make sustained growth above 3% increasingly unlikely without risking internal or external imbalances. FXStreet also highlights ING's view that a nuclear energy crisis could negatively affect Hungary's trade balance in the third quarter.