Home›Forex›Central Banks›RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.75%, signals possible October pause

RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.75%, signals possible October pause

The RBNZ forecasts an average OCR of 2.81% in Q4 2026 and expects a 25 bps hike at its 9 December meeting if data support further tightening.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its policy rate, the OCR, by 25 basis points to 2.75%, a decision reached by consensus, according to analysis from Action Forex.

The central bank also revised its outlook, forecasting an average OCR in Q4 2026 of 2.81%, compared with 2.84% in its May Monetary Policy Statement. Action Forex notes this path aligns with an unchanged meeting on 28 October followed by a 25 bps rate increase at the 9 December meeting.

In the Record of Meeting, the RBNZ emphasized that future policy will depend on the committee’s judgment of the balance of risks to medium term inflation, with members describing the possibility that the OCR may need to increase further conditional on the central economic outlook. Action Forex says the language suggests the October decision could be a pause before any next hike.

Action Forex also highlights that the revised neutral policy rate estimates were unchanged at 3.1% for the long term and 3.5% for the policy relevant horizon, while the short term measure was revised down to 3.7%, linking that change to a slightly weaker oil price profile versus the May projections. The analysis describes the RBNZ’s strategy as continuing to remove monetary stimulus rather than shifting to a restrictive stance.

More like this

Sources