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Senior housing supply gap points to $1T investment opportunity

NIC MAP says occupancy nationwide is above 90%, while construction starts are down about 67% since 2021.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Residential

ConnectCRE reports that the U.S. senior housing sector faces a widening supply-demand imbalance, creating what NIC MAP estimates as a $1 trillion investment opportunity.

NIC MAPs updated Senior Housing Market Outlook points to demographic tailwinds, saying the population age 80 and older is projected to grow by roughly one third by 2030 and nearly double by 2040. It expects that growth to add about 5 million people within five years and 13 million within 15 years.

The outlook also highlights capacity constraints, noting that occupancy nationwide exceeds 90% while construction starts have declined by around 67% since 2021. With the first Baby Boomers turning 80 throughout 2026, NIC MAP frames the challenge as one of ensuring there is enough built capacity as demand arrives.

Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP, said the shift is from demand arriving to whether the industry will have sufficient capacity to serve it, according to ConnectCRE.

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