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Peso stays under 18 as Citi expects Banxico to hold rates

Citi Mexico’s survey forecasts USD/MXN ending 2026 at 17.5, with Banxico’s main policy rate seen around 6.5% through at least 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Citi Mexico’s September Expectations Survey finds most private economists expect the Bank of Mexico, or Banxico, to keep interest rates unchanged, even as the peso remains below the 18.00 level.

In the poll, respondents see Mexico’s main reference rate at 6.50% for at least until the end of 2027, with the range expected to move between 6.25% and 6.75%. They forecast USD/MXN to end 2026 at 17.50, and to be around 18.07 by the end of 2027, down from 18.24.

The survey also projects inflation of 4% for 2026 for both overall inflation and the core component. On growth, respondents expect Mexico’s GDP to finish 2026 at 1.3% year over year and to rise to 1.8% in 2027.

FXStreet notes Banxico meets eight times per year and that its decisions are influenced by the US Federal Reserve, since the Fed’s rate path affects the rate differential that can support or pressure the Mexican peso.

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