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Survey expects ECB terminal rate between 2.50% and 3.00%
Respondents are split on when the ECB will start cutting, with expectations ranging from Q2 2027 to 2028 or later.
A Deutsche Bank survey cited by FXStreet finds clients expect the European Central Bank to keep hiking, with a strong bias toward another rate move in September and a projected terminal rate in the 2.50% to 3.00% range.
The survey results show 31% of respondents see 2.50% as the terminal rate, 37% expect 2.75%, and 26% forecast 3.00%, while the share worried the ECB would hike too far fell to 56% from 71% in a prior June survey.
FXStreet also reports that timing for the next ECB cutting cycle is uncertain, with views spread across Q2 2027 to Q4 2027 (20% to 26%), and 23% expecting cuts to begin in 2028 or later.
The same survey indicates concerns about overtightening have eased since June, alongside a rise in the share expecting the ECB might not hike enough, which increased to 22% from 13%.