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USD/JPY holds above 154 as Japan wage data sets up BoJ focus

Markets are watching July Japanese labour cash earnings at 3.9% year over year, a key input for whether BoJ tightening expectations can shift beyond already-priced September action.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

USD/JPY is trading just above 154.00 after falling 1.22% on Monday, with attention now shifting to upcoming Japanese data and the Bank of Japan meeting cycle, according to FXStreet.

The first major catalyst is Japan’s July labour cash earnings due at 23:30 GMT, where the market expects 3.9% year over year versus 3.4% previously. FXStreet notes the wage figure is the key comparison within the broader release, with GDP set to follow at 23:50 GMT, including growth of 0.4% on the quarter and a deflator of 2.6%.

The newsletter upgrade from FXStreet says the wage data versus the deflator implies real gains, which it frames as something that supports a more hawkish case. However, it also says the September rate hike is already priced at close to 97%, leaving more potential impact for expectations around October, where pricing is thinner.

FXStreet adds that the broader rates backdrop already reflects a hawkish tilt, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield clearing 3% on September 1 for the first time since 1996. It also highlights the timing gap between the Federal Reserve on September 16 and the BoJ on September 18, with swap pricing showing the Japanese quarter point near 97% and the Fed quarter point near 59%.

Latest closeUSD/JPY 158.82 ▼0.9%

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