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Mortgage rate locks fell 9% in August as refinance demand stayed weak

The 30-year conforming rate ended August at 6.72% and rate-and-term refinance volume dropped 47% year over year.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Mortgages

Mortgage rate-lock volume fell 9% month over month in August, even though mortgage rates largely held steady, according to Optimal Blue’s August 2026 Market Advantage report, released Tuesday via HousingWire.

Purchases accounted for nearly 81% of total locks, with purchase lock volume down 10% from July but still 6% higher than in August 2025. Refinance activity remained soft, with rate-and-term refi volume down 13% from July and 47% from a year earlier, while cash-out refi volume edged down 3% month over month and 5% year over year.

Optimal Blue said the 30-year conforming fixed rate ended August at 6.72%, unchanged from July but 23 basis points higher than a year earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.75%, keeping the spread between the Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate at 197 basis points.

The report also projected the 30-year conforming mortgage rate would rise to 6.74% over the next month and 6.82% over the next three months before easing to 6.51% over the next 12 months, while noting refinance volume declines limited broader momentum as borrowing costs remained elevated.

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