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New York Fed says dollar-reserve drop does not prove sovereign Bitcoin demand
The Fed analysis tracks the global dollar share falling from 64.0% in 2015 to 56.0% in 2025, attributing much of the move to concentrated reserve decisions rather than broad dollar exits.
New York Fed researchers say a decline in the global dollar share of official foreign-exchange reserves should not be read as evidence of broad, sovereign demand for Bitcoin. In a Sept. 2, 2026 analysis, the authors distinguish between changes in the average dollar share and an investment decision to hold Bitcoin.
Using IMF COFER data, the researchers report that the dollar share of global reserves fell from 64% at year-end 2015 to 56% at year-end 2025. They argue country-level evidence suggests concentrated actions, including shifts in the currency mix of reserve portfolios, which they describe as a “preferences” channel, alongside changes in total reserve size.
The paper points to examples where reserve growth or contractions can move the global average even if a country’s own dollar allocation rises. It cites Switzerland between 2015 and 2019, where reserve growth pushed down the aggregate dollar share even as Switzerland’s own dollar allocation increased.
The analysis also separates reserves needed for liquidity from any investment portion beyond those needs, linking liquidity requirements to trade payments, foreign-currency debt, and currency stabilization. For assessing the investment portion, the staff report models liquidity needs using alternatives such as short-term external debt or three months of imports, and it notes that the same distinction would apply even if a central bank were shown to buy Bitcoin, using a November 2025 Czech National Bank digital-asset test portfolio as an example, though the article text cuts off after that reference.
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