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ECB wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth around 2.7% in 2027
The ECB projects negotiated wage pressures of 2.7% in Q1 2027 and 2.8% in Q2 2027, while employee coverage falls to 25.1% in the second quarter.
The European Central Bank said its wage tracker, which tracks active collective bargaining agreements, points to modest increases in negotiated wage growth in early 2027. With smoothed one off payments, the headline indicator stands at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and at 2.8% in the second quarter, based on employee coverage of 32.5% and 25.1%, respectively.
The ECB said the lower reading in the first half of 2026 reflects a mechanical effect from one off payments that were paid in the second half of 2024 and were not repeated the following year. It added that those effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026, and that the smoothed wage tracker was revised slightly downward for 2026 compared with the July 2026 release.
Looking at other measures, the ECB reported that the wage tracker with unsmoothed one off payments moderated from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, while the version excluding one off payments averages 2.6% for 2026. The ECB also said its forward looking horizon for the wage tracker has been extended to the end of June 2027, with coverage and the horizon expected to expand as more wage agreements are signed.