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energy price moves are reshaping inflation and rate outlook
ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić said markets are increasingly sensitive to energy prices, with gas storage in Europe relatively low going into winter.
The European Central Bank is watching how elevated energy prices are affecting inflation expectations and the interest rate path, according to an interview with Boris Vujčić published by Reuters.
Vujčić said energy prices have moved well above the ECB’s baseline projections since the latest forecasts were released, and that financial markets have started to price the rate path mainly in response to higher energy costs. He noted a shift versus the June and pre summer period, when the baseline assumed Middle East tensions would ease and energy prices would adjust downwards.
He added that geopolitics drives significant uncertainty and that the ECB does not provide forward guidance, instead reacting on a meeting by meeting basis to incoming data. Vujčić said markets have priced several rate hikes over the next 12 months, but also emphasized that policymakers should not focus exclusively on energy prices.
On gas risk ahead of winter, Vujčić said European gas storage levels are relatively low. He described oil as having a faster pass-through to headline inflation through fuel prices, while gas tends to affect inflation more persistently through utility bills and producer input costs.