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Falling oil eases carry pressure, lifting CHF versus major currencies
EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF are rolling over as lower oil reduces inflation pressure abroad, lessening the rate differential pressure on the Swiss franc.
EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF are both rolling over ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s upcoming decision, with market participants pointing to a broader recovery in the franc rather than expecting a major repricing from the SNB itself. Action Forex notes that the SNB is widely expected to leave its policy rate at 0% on Thursday, with that hold already close to being priced in.
Action Forex links the franc strength to falling oil prices, saying weaker oil is easing inflation pressure across other major economies. That reduces the need for other central banks to keep widening their rate advantage over Switzerland, which in turn relieves carry pressure against CHF.
The outlet adds that CHF is the second-strongest major currency of the week behind only the US dollar, and that FX flows are consistent with franc strength versus EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, and NZD, while CHF is weaker only versus USD.
According to Action Forex, surveys and forecasts also support expectations for no near-term change from the SNB. It cites a Swiss Bankers Association survey released in August showing respondents expected the policy rate to remain at 0% through the rest of 2026, and ING forecasts unchanged rates over coming quarters despite firmer, but not overheating, growth.