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SEK seen benefiting as Riksbank tightening outlook strengthens

Societe Generale expects Sweden to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2027, alongside a roughly 90% chance of a Riksbank hike in November and another in early 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale said the Swedish krona is set up to benefit from Sweden’s stronger growth outlook and an expected tightening cycle from the Riksbank.

FXStreet said Juckes noted that Swedish rates are still subdued for now because inflation is keeping pressure off, but he argued the FX picture will likely change as policy expectations firm up.

In the base case described by Societe Generale, Sweden is forecast to grow 2.2% in both 2026 and 2027, outpacing Norway and Switzerland, with consensus growth for Switzerland at 1.3% next year and Norway at 1.0%.

Juckes also pointed to pricing in rate expectations, citing a 90% probability of a November Riksbank hike and a second hike in the first quarter of next year, with markets currently implying only a remote chance of a move in the near term.

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