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RBA seen hiking in September, with no further moves in November-Dec

TD Securities expects the cash rate to reach 4.6% after a 25 bps September increase, citing CPI upside, firmer GDP, higher oil prices, and AI-related demand.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

TD Securities’ Macro Research team expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% at its September meeting, with the case for a hike supported by upside surprises in CPI, firmer GDP, higher oil prices, and AI-related demand.

The firm does not expect additional RBA hikes in November or December, suggesting the September move would not automatically extend into the following two meetings.

TD Securities also flagged items to watch that could alter its view for 2027, including how developments in the Middle East impact oil prices, while noting that a February 2027 hike is not its central forecast.

Separately in the FX tape, the Australian jobs report showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% from 4.5% expected, while employment change came in at 39.5K, and traders remain focused on the broader risk backdrop, including US-China meeting expectations.

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