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Singapore inflation keeps MAS on hold, Commerzbank says

Commerzbank cites August headline inflation rising to 2.3% year over year and core CPI climbing to 2.2% as it argues MAS can wait for clearer wage and energy-driven signals.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank analysts Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim said Singapore’s August inflation data keep the Monetary Authority of Singapore cautious. In their view, both headline and core inflation moved toward the upper end of MAS’s 2026 forecast range, with contributions including services, retail goods, food and utilities.

They pointed to headline inflation of 2.3% year over year in August, up from 2.2% in July, which they described as the highest reading since July 2024 and continued acceleration for a third consecutive month. Core CPI, excluding accommodation and private transportation, rose to 2.2% year over year, versus 2.0% in July, matching a Bloomberg consensus of 2.2%.

On policy, Commerzbank said the inflation readings remained within MAS’s forecast range, and they expect wage pressures to moderate. Unless inflation pressures broaden or energy-driven imported inflation becomes more persistent, they argued MAS should have room to remain on hold in October, while USD/SGD has recently firmed.

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