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Mortgage rates rise as markets price more Fed rate hikes
Redfin News links the move to a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield after higher-than-expected PMI surveys, alongside expectations for further Fed tightening that could lift the fed funds rate to 5% by end of next year.
Mortgage rates have climbed sharply as economic concerns have aligned with markets increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to raise rates further, effectively reversing much of the rate cuts over the past two years, according to Redfin News.
Redfin News attributes part of the increase to higher-than-expected PMI surveys, which it says helped trigger a roughly 20 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, in the same period that markets saw oil price volatility increase.
The outlet also points to a resilient economy, saying the data it cites suggests growth could be as high as 5% annually in the third quarter, while the Fed is viewed as becoming more hawkish.
Redfin News adds that futures markets are now pricing multiple additional rate hikes, taking the fed funds rate to 5% by the end of next year, about 50 bps below the 2022 to 2023 cycle peak, which it says is 75 bps more than markets expected a month ago.