Home›Bonds & Rates›Central Banks›Gold barely reacts as Fed hike odds fall, focus shifts…

Gold barely reacts as Fed hike odds fall, focus shifts to minutes

Markets cut October hike odds to 17.7%, but still price an 82.7% chance of at least one more hike by December.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Gold prices showed little enthusiasm after traders reduced their odds of an October Federal Reserve hike, with Action Forex noting that the move did not translate into a stronger rally.

Even as October hike odds fell to 17.7%, markets still assign an 82.7% probability of at least one more hike by December, and they continue to look for a rate plateau near 4.7% by late 2027, nearly 60 basis points above the Fed's September median, according to Action Forex.

The outlet said this is why Wednesday's FOMC minutes may carry more weight for gold than the decision to skip an October hike, arguing that the market is pricing the endpoint for rates more than the timing.

Action Forex also pointed to price action, saying a post-NFP rebound topped out just below a resistance cluster around 4,230.70 to 4,234.68 before fading, and that spot later returned to roughly the 4,145 to 4,160 area.

Latest closeGold $4,172.10 ▼0.7%

More like this

Sources