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Poland and Romania rate decisions seen as hawkish holds in CEE

Societe Generale expects the next Poland rate steps to be contingent on November projections, while Romania’s next cut is not expected until 1Q27 if inflation eases and political stability returns.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Societe Generale strategists expect Poland’s National Bank to keep its policy rate at 3.75% in its upcoming decision, citing firmer inflation and constrained flexibility amid political uncertainty.

The bank also flags that Romania’s central bank is expected to hold rates at 6.50%, with inflation and uncertainty over government formation pointing to caution rather than near term easing.

In Poland, Societe Generale says the case for tighter policy has strengthened after inflation quickened to 4.0% in September, driven by higher fuel prices, and it expects any further tightening to wait for November staff projections, with another 25 basis points possible in January.

For Romania, Societe Generale projects the next rate cut only in 1Q27, assuming inflation declines and political stability returns, and it adds that a hawkish hold in Poland may offer limited support for the PLN because money markets already price in ample tightening.

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