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Romanian leu gets short-term relief after S&P rating affirmation

Commerzbank said S&P’s BBB-/A-3 affirmation with a negative outlook avoided an immediate downgrade, but pointed to ongoing pressures including a 7.5% of GDP current-account deficit and 8.3% inflation for 2026.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

FXStreet reports that Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose said S&P’s affirmation of Romania’s sovereign rating at BBB-/A-3 with a negative outlook gave the Romanian leu short-term relief, after markets had feared an immediate downgrade.

The outlet said Ghose stressed the relief was not an all-clear, because the negative outlook remains tied to Romania’s political paralysis and the difficulty of forming a government that can implement reforms.

FXStreet also reported Ghose’s view that the National Bank of Romania may regain some control over EUR/RON, but he expects another move weaker in the coming months.

Commerzbank pointed to continued macro pressure, including a current-account deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2026 and an inflation forecast of 8.3% for 2026, which it said was faster than S&P had estimated in May.

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