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Deutsche Bank sees UK GDP flat in August, momentum to slow

The bank expects energy driven price pressures, tighter financial conditions, and Budget uncertainty to weigh on households and businesses ahead.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

FXStreet reports that Deutsche Bank Research, led by Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja and economist Maui Brennan, nowcasts UK GDP at 0.0% month on month for August 2026 after a strong July.

The team expects services to rise slightly, but projects declines in production and construction, and says much of July’s upside came from more volatile national accounts industries that may reverse in August.

Deutsche Bank Research also links the expected slowdown to energy driven price pressures, tighter financial conditions, and Budget uncertainty affecting households and businesses.

Looking further out, the bank expects quarterly GDP of 0.5% quarter on quarter for Q3 2026 before slowing to 0.1% q-o-q, with 2026 GDP near 1.4% before edging higher in the following two years.

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