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Housing costs could normalize in about five to six years under scenarios

Redfin frames the outlook using the mortgage-payment-to-income ratio, saying costs could return to “normal” by February 2029 if rates fall and price growth steadies.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Residential

Redfin News says U.S. housing costs could hypothetically return to “normal” within about five years if mortgage rates drop to around 6% while home-price growth stays near 2.1%.

In an alternative scenario, housing costs could normalize in roughly six years if mortgage rates remain near current levels, about 7.5%, and home-price growth flattens.

The analysis defines housing costs using the mortgage-payment-to-income ratio and outlines timing linked to specific assumptions, including the possibility of normalization by February 2029 if rates reach the lower end of Redfin’s expectations.

Redfin also notes a slower path, saying it could take 10 years or more for costs to return to normal if mortgage rates stay in the 7% to 8% range and prices keep rising at about 2.1% annually.

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