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Nordea sees ECB September account supporting more rate hikes

Nordea expects additional 25 basis point hikes in December and March, citing upside inflation risks tied to persistent energy shocks.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich said the ECB’s September monetary policy account points to a continued focus on upside inflation risks, a stance that could support further rate hikes.

Von Gerich said the Governing Council appears particularly concerned about the impact of persistent energy shocks, while also noting that the ECB avoided pre-commitment and emphasized data dependence amid high geopolitical and market uncertainty.

The analyst added that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks skewed higher for inflation and lower for economic growth, according to Nordea’s reading of the account.

Overall, Nordea’s baseline is for further 25 basis point rate hikes in December and March, even as it sees no broad-based inflation pressures yet.

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