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New Zealand inflation slows to 3.7% in Q3, below forecasts, keeping RBNZ hike on track
The miss was too small to shift the policy outlook. Markets still price an October 28 hike as near certain and a cumulative 50 basis points of tightening by the end of February. The kiwi’s dip just below 0.57 suggests traders trimmed only the most aggressive hike bets. Oil is the key swing factor from here: the Middle East war is lifting fuel, fertiliser and transport costs, and with petrol already the biggest contributor to inflation, any further rise in crude feeds directly into the expected fourth-quarter rebound. That keeps the risk skewed toward a longer tightening cycle. NZD
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