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Climate scientists warn rapid typhoon intensification is harder to predict
Super Typhoon Bavi is heading toward Taiwan and eastern mainland China, highlighting how fast intensification can quickly turn smaller threats into major hazards, according to SCMP Economy.
Super Typhoon Bavi is churning toward Taiwan and eastern mainland China, underscoring concerns that worsening climate conditions are making extreme-weather risk more volatile. SCMP Economy reports that Benjamin Horton, the recipient of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Axford Medal, said the Earth is highly sensitive and operating near a so-called planetary boundary, which increases the likelihood of extremes.
Horton warned that historical weather patterns are becoming less reliable for future planning, because the climate system can move toward conditions that are difficult to predict. He also said the system is prone to extremes that cannot always be pinpointed in time or location.
According to SCMP Economy, typhoons like Bavi that rapidly intensify present major forecasting challenges, since within a day or two a comparatively modest threat can escalate into a larger hazard. The outlet links the abrupt jump in maximum sustained winds to exceptionally warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions.
The forecast difficulty matters because rapid intensification can shift a storm’s danger faster than traditional models anticipate, leaving less time to prepare once winds start surging. SCMP Economy’s account frames the broader takeaway as the need to brace for more unpredictable disaster risk as the climate nears tipping point behavior.