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June FOMC minutes reinforce higher-for-longer, hawkish hold

Minutes showed staff revised higher inflation projections for 2026 and 2027, keeping the bar for rate cuts high.

Thursday, July 9, 2026 · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

The June FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, with policymakers unanimously agreeing to keep interest rates unchanged while continuing to weigh inflation risks more heavily than labour market downside. FXStreet reported that officials saw some easing in risks to the labour market but still judged upside risks to inflation as elevated.

Participants pointed to potential sources of persistent price pressures, including stronger AI-related investment, higher tariffs, and renewed tensions in the Middle East. FXStreet also said staff projections were revised to show higher inflation in both 2026 and 2027 than had been expected earlier.

While the minutes maintained a hawkish hold with most participants supporting no change at the June meeting, some policymakers judged that another rate hike could eventually become appropriate. FXStreet noted that participants also favored communication tweaks, including removing language implying an easing bias and shortening the post-meeting statement to stress the Fed’s dual mandate and price stability goals.

In market terms, the minutes were framed as supportive for the US dollar and Treasury yields, while weighing on rate-sensitive assets. FXStreet said the US Dollar Index (DXY) pushed to challenge the 101.00 region on Wednesday.

Latest closeDollar index 101.39 ▼0.1%

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