Commodities
Home›Commodities›Energy›Goldman warns Persian Gulf tensions could extend oil s…
Goldman warns Persian Gulf tensions could extend oil supply disruptions
Middle East oil output remains 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, and flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 80% to 70% of pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs has cautioned that renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf could lead to a longer disruption in global oil supplies, reversing an earlier view that the market was on track for stabilization, OilPrice reports. The bank said that even as some Middle Eastern producers reopen shut-in wells, potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could slow the pace of production recovery.
Goldman also highlighted that Middle East oil production is still 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The firm warned that elevated tanker-crossing risks could further weigh on near-term Hormuz flows, given uncertainty around the ceasefire status.
In its analysis, Goldman noted that prior to the latest escalation, oil flows had recovered to about 80% of pre-war levels but have since dropped to roughly 70% of those levels. Bloomberg data cited by OilPrice suggested there was no observable tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz except for a U.S.-sanctioned Very Large Crude Carrier.
Last week, Goldman had warned that rebuilding depleted inventories would not be enough to offset a glut expected next year, OilPrice said. The new assessment suggests the earlier assumption that tanker traffic recovery was irreversible may have been wrong, with commodity supply still constrained despite prior flow improvements.
Latest closeWTI crude $81.23 ▼1.7%