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Dollar outlook tied to CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh testimonies

The next CPI print is set for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT ahead of the July 29 Fed meeting, with Warsh testifying before the House Financial Services Committee the same day.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

The US dollar’s near term direction is being framed by two key catalysts, the next US CPI release and incoming remarks from new Fed Chair Warsh. The dollar index climbed to a late June peak, its highest level since May 2025, as traders assessed fresh Fed rate path signals.

Next week’s macro calendar begins Tuesday with CPI at 12:30 GMT, the last report before the July 29 Fed meeting. After a solid May print, a 20% monthly drop in oil prices in June is expected to help headline CPI decelerate back below 4% again, with core CPI also seen easing, though both are expected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target.

Wednesday and Thursday will bring PPI and retail sales, followed on Friday by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. The article points to the risk of another strong PPI print after China’s PPI strength, while retail sales and consumer sentiment could rise in part due to lower energy prices and World Cup spending effects during the covered period.

Warsh’s first Humphrey-Hawkins testimonies are also central to the setup, with appearances scheduled Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. The piece says Warsh has signaled he dislikes forward guidance and has emphasized the committee’s concern that inflation remains well above target, and it expects his testimony to reinforce hawkish themes that have already boosted rate hike expectations.

Latest closeDollar index 100.94 ▼0.1%

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