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Gold rebounds as oil eases, but ETF holdings stay lower
OCBC says gold has benefited from lower oil and a softer US dollar, while known gold ETF holdings remain down month-to-date, indicating the move is still mainly relief-driven.
Gold has rebounded as oil prices eased from a recent spike, according to OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong. They said the pullback in oil reduces pressure on inflation expectations and eases concerns about Fed tightening, while a softer US dollar also helped lift the precious metal after a selloff.
The strategists cautioned that investor demand has not fully returned. Bloomberg data referenced by OCBC show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though holdings have stabilized slightly in recent days, suggesting the rebound is more relief from oil and yield pressures than a broad-based investor rebuild.
OCBC also pointed to continued central bank buying as a structural support. Poland was highlighted as a standout buyer this year, with Governor Glapinski saying Poland has bought 82 tons of gold this year and now holds 632.4 tons, with a stated target to accumulate 700 tons.
Near term, OCBC expects gold could trade with a better tone if oil stays contained and yields remain capped. The team last noted gold around 4125 and cited resistance at 4140 and 4200 levels, with support at 4021 and 3943.
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