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Brent crude eyes $80.6 amid Gulf shipping disruption after US-Iran escalation
Brent climbed above $79 on Monday and faces last week’s high near $80.6, as attacks on shipping and a Strait of Hormuz closure declaration raise the risk premium via higher insurance and delayed sailings.
Brent crude is moving back toward last week’s high near $80.59 after rising above $79 on Monday, with geopolitical tensions in the Gulf increasingly seen as a potential real-market risk rather than temporary noise, according to Action Forex.
Weekend escalation began with an attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy as it traveled through the Strait of Hormuz from Friday into Saturday. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned vessels using unauthorized routes, the ship was left ablaze, and one of its 23 crew members was reported missing, Action Forex said. Tehran then declared the Strait closed until further notice, while the United States launched its biggest strikes of the episode so far, targeting around 140 missile, drone, and other military sites overnight into Sunday.
CENTCOM said the cumulative number of targets hit across three nights rose above 300, and Action Forex noted the retaliation has broadened across multiple Gulf states, with alerts and attacks reported in places including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Oman. The widening involvement of multiple governments increases the risk that regional authorities are pulled deeper into responses.
Action Forex said markets do not need either the US view that the Strait is open or Iran’s claim that passage is impossible to be fully correct for oil risk to rise. It added that disruptions can come through delayed sailings, higher insurance costs, route uncertainty, and crew and operator reluctance even before any formal blockade takes hold.
Latest closeWTI crude $71.51 ▼0.8%|Brent $76.00 ▼0.4%